☃️ February in Brooklyn
Snow storms, stock prediction results, movies, books, Broadway, Louis C.K. and more
NYC winter is in full swing and we’ve already had a couple snow storms. We asked for seasons, and seasons we received. As we expected, George is loving the cold and enjoys rubbing his face in the snow while digging intensely. It’s fun… and dirty.
🏝Miami
As much as we’re enjoying the winter, Carole & I needed a little break from the cold so a few weeks ago we flew down to Miami for the long MLK holiday weekend to enjoy the sun and beach vibes.
I went to high school and college in Florida so I’d spent some time in Miami before but I don’t think I ever appreciated it. Swimming in the ocean in January while it’s 75 degrees and sunny is a treat, especially when preceded by freezing 20 degree weather just hours earlier.
Given that Miami is only 2.5 hours by plane from NYC and on the same timezone, it’s a much more appealing - and practical - weekend getaway option than it was for us from SF (which required a 6 hour flight and 3 hour timezone difference).
🎬 Movies
Free Guy - the first time I saw the Free Guy trailer, I thought it would be really bad (Ryan Reynolds as a video game character? Meh). But then I started hearing people say it was really good. So I watched it on the flight down to Miami. It was surprisingly original, entertaining and fun.
Coda - as I was watching Free Guy, one seat over Carole was watching Coda. When we got off the plane, she said it was incredible and was still wiping some tears. I watched it on the return flight and as always, she was right. It’s intimate, funny, dramatic and has all the feels (and fun music). Found out that it’s based on a French movie so now I need to watch that too.
Swan Song - Mahershala Ali has become one my favorite actors. Some recent highlights include The Green Book, Moonlight, and True Detective season 3. I saw a trailer for Swan Song on Apple TV+ and was intrigued. I found it simultaneously gripping, disturbing and beautiful. Have some tissues ready.
📚 Currently Reading
The Eye of the World. I was torn about starting the The Wheel of Time epic fantasy series because it’s 14 (!) books long and would require a multi-year commitment. After repeat recommendations from friends, I finally picked up the first book and it is GOOD. Just ordered the second book.
A Hunter-Gatherer's Guide to the 21st Century: Evolution and the Challenges of Modern Life. I’ve enjoyed listening to Bret Weinstein’s conversations on a few podcasts and have learned a lot from the show he co-hosts with his wife Heather Heying. Bret and Heather are both evolutionary biologists and recently published this book which I’m already finding fascinating. One interesting idea I’ve taken from It so far is that “Humans don’t have a niche. Our niche is niche-switching.”
Broadway and Live Comedy
One of the main perks of living in NYC is the easy access to Broadway shows. Live shows force people to put our phones away, be present, and get pulled into a story. It’s a genuine treat.
We’ve been using an app called TodayTix to find discounted tickets for shows and went to see a couple so far:
Dear Evan Hansen - even though the film, book and musical have been out for years, I somehow managed to get all the way to my seat without having any idea what it’s about. I won’t spoil it, but it’s a really interesting exploration of loneliness, mental health, and longing for belonging. The songs were very catchy.
Mrs. Doubtfire - I didn’t know there was a Mrs. Doubtfire show on Broadway until Carole bought tickets. I was curious how a classic movie would become a broadway show (and who would fill Robin Williams’ shoes in the role) but it totally works. We were laughing, crying and loving the music throughout. The stage set up was impressive and the main actor was unbelievably talented.
Coincidentally, the storyline in both shows revolves around a protagonist who, under a lot of stress, lies.
The lie grows and takes on a life of its own. The audience feels the rising tension, craves for the truth to come out, and feels a cathartic release when it does.
It’s interesting that the same structure can be equally gripping as an audience member for two different stories with distinct characters and contexts. It’s a good reminder of how speaking the truth can set things right, and how humans feel relief when the truth is out.
Other than Broadway shows, NYC is also world famous for its live comedy scene. We went to a live show at The Comedy Cellar a couple weeks ago and I had low expectations (I’ve been disappointed by comedians in SF). I heard that famous comedians sometimes came by unannounced but was still skeptical. That would be like hitting the lottery right?
The venue is in a below-ground, intimate basement that you might know from Aziz Ansari’s latest Netflix special. Our table was at the center of a long rectangular room, directly across from the stage. After a strong opening from the emcee, the initial act was “meh” and was thankfully followed by four excellent ones (including Ronny Chiang who was so funny).
After the wait staff announced “last call”, it was clear there was only time for one more. The emcee got on the stage to introduce the final act of the night and said some stuff which I’m forgetting because all I remember is the feeling of utter surprise when the words “Louis C.K.!” came out of his mouth. The room erupted.
I’ve seen every single one of Louis C.K.’s specials and his series Horace and Pete is a masterpiece (in my view, at least).
My favorite standup comedian was on stage, 15 feet from me. He had his notebook with him and proceeded to do 20 minutes of brand new material and crushed. Only one joke didn’t land and he kindly thanked the audience for letting him know that it’s not funny while he made a note. It was a surreal experience.
I’ll be a regular at the Comedy Cellar 👌
📉 2021 Stock Prediction Recap
Many of the subscribers to this newsletter joined after reading my 2021 Stock Predictions post in December 2020. 2021 ended over a month ago so this recap is a bit overdue (I’ve been busy) but better late than never.
The 2021 tech stock market was a roller coaster. There was a long stretch last year where I felt like a genius. Then November happened.
This chart shows price fluctuations across all 10 stocks from my predictions post. Notice the strong start to the year, followed by a few months of decreases and then the big bull run that started in mid-June and went all the way through early November (notable exception being Peloton which never quite recovered from its H1 problems).
So how’d the stocks do?
If you invested $10k equally across the 10 stocks in my prediction post ($1k each), you’d end the year losing 10.1%, finishing 2021 with $8,988 worth of stocks.
Needless to say, not great performance. Really rough November (which turned into a really poor December and January but that’s a different story).
Reminder: I’m not a financial advisor so don’t invest based on anything I write. This isn’t advice. I’m just having fun.
Highlights:
Biggest “hit” was Atlassian ($TEAM): the stock price rose 59% in 2021, 35% higher I predicted. The company consistently delivered higher earnings than expected and continues to have a very sticky customer base.
Biggest “miss” was Peloton ($PTON): the stock price fell an astounding 77% in 2021; I predicted it would increase 23%. Technically, I was 100% wrong about Peloton’s performance. The company was not able to deliver on its expected earnings throughout the year even though the earnings forecasts were being lowered each quarter. Inventory is piling up and people aren’t buying Pelotons. My theory is that everyone who wanted a Peloton already got one and many who didn’t aren’t going to get one now that the world is reopening.
Second biggest “miss” was Compass Pathways ($CMPS): the stock price fell 59% in 2021; I predicted it would increase 24%. The company had a very inconsistent earnings performance throughout the year and it has a challenging path ahead in the nascent psychedelic market (companies like ATAI are struggling in the public market as well). Personally, I’m rooting for Compass Pathways, ATAI, MindBloom and many other psychedelic companies to responsibly build the products and services that allow us to use psychedelic medicines to improve mental health and wellness.
“Misses” for Spotify ($SPOT) & Twilio (TWLO): they each ended the year 65% lower than I predicted. I think both are still great companies and expect both stock prices to rebound this year. But they’re going through a bit of a rough patch.
“Miss” for Unity ($U): the stock fell short of my predicted 36% increase by ending the year down 12%. I’m a big believer in the company given the continued growth of game development as new computing platforms emerge and consumer demand for immersive virtual game experiences increases. I expect the public markets to regain appreciation for Unity in 2022.
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